Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Are you ready for Feb 11th? You'd better be...

First off, I need to warn you that what I'm about to write is pure speculation on my part.  I have no inside knowledge that leads me to the conclusion I'm about to share.  Secondly, I hope I'm wrong.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared yesterday in the commencement speech celebrating the 1979 Iranian Revolution that his nation will deliver a harsh blow to the "global arrogance" on this year's anniversary of the Islamic Revolution (11 Feb).

Let's rewind just a bit to put this in proper perspective. News flash- September 29, 2009: Iran Admits it has developed Uranium - a key ingredient for nuclear weapons.

Three months later on Dec 23rd, Iran's Minister of Defense announced that during the 10 Day Dawn (the first 10 days of Feb) it would launch a new breed of satellites with it's indigenous missiles.

This brings us to present day.  Let's just say that Iran has developed a few nuclear warheads.  It would not survive a symmetrical nuclear war.  To use the weapon effectively, they would likely use it as an EMP- al a "One Second After"

Suppose the "satellite launch" is only a cover for the missile that will "deliver a harsh blow" on 11 Feb.

But wait- suppose I'm wrong on the nukes.  How else could Iran deliver a harsh blow?  They could announce that they will no longer sell their oil in US dollars.  They will insist on the Euro instead.  This will bring an immediate  crash to the dollar, oil prices skyrocket.... you know the rest.

But am I the only one that thinks this threat is real?  Let's see what the US military is doing about it just this past week.
US raises stakes on Iran by sending in ships and missiles
Anti-Missile Systems Deployed to Middle East Against Iranian Threats

Iran has noticed the build-up too:  Iran Reports Naval Buildup In Gulf

So, like I said in the beginning, I hope I'm wrong.  I probably am.  But, this might be the only warning you get.
I did work for six years as an intelligence specialist and I do have a Master's degree in Strategic Intelligence- for what it's worth. I would say that the chances of an incident are much higher next week than usual.  Not that it is definitely going to happen.

What can you do about it?  Well, for starters finish any preparations you might need.  Fill your gas tanks and do all your shopping on the 9th. - might make it an extra large shopping trip.  Get that extra box of ammo you've been meaning to and call your family- just to make the final plans of what you will do if it does happen. Maybe an extra tank of propane...

I hope that I can look back on this a week and half from now and laugh- Best of luck to all of you.

1 comment:

Jimmy (pen name) said...

Iran just launched the first missile. I hope it only has worms and turtles in it. This could stay in orbit for many weeks.