Wednesday, April 7, 2010

3 principles that you should keep in mind to prevent or mitigate the damages in an attack or catastrophe

I have to start out by saying that economic collapse will start a food shortage and/or civil and may eventually lead to societal and governmental collapse.  Kind of like a spider web with everything related to another- it may be hard to separate one catastrophe from another once it starts snowballing. 
I will identify three principles that you should keep in mind to prevent or mitigate the damages in an attack or catastrophe. First, you must prioritize the threats. Second, you must determine if your spending is proportional to the threats and finally, you must develop strategies to minimize the loss of life in the event of a catastrophe.
These are the major threats that that I believe could threaten my family, ranked in order from most likely to least likely to occur:
  • Economic collapse
    • hyperinflation
    • collapse of the dollar
    • hyper interest rate escalation
    • hyper taxation
    • hyper regulation
  • Natural disaster (if it hit a major economic or production center it could cripple the entire country)
    • Major earthquakes
    • Hurricanes/tornados
  • Food shortages
    • oil prices skyrocket = increased food prices/unavailability
    • wheat blight
  • Civil war
    • revolts against government (peaceful or not)
    • Consider the threat of NATO or the UN sending in troops to "stabilize" our country
  • Biological attack
    • terrorist or from a foreign country
  • Chemical attack
    • terrorist or from a foreign country
  • Nuclear attack
    • terrorist or from a foreign country
Keeping these threats in mind, I asked myself what what I preparing for and where I have invested my money.  I am preparing (in order of the events above, and I have spent my money and time accordingly.
#1  physical security (guns & locomotion/location), #2 food, #3 gardening (including seeds), #4 medicine /first aid, #5 economic security, #6 WMD attacks.
My strategy may be different from yours, depending on your ranking of the threats, but others seem to prepare hap-hazardly.
To explain their reaction, consider prospect theory and decision theory, which asserts that the public generally puts weight on certain issues that are statistically unlikely versus making rational decisions based on logic. For example, most people are more worried about the risks of nuclear power plants than the risks of driving to work, and more alarmed by the prospect of terrorists with chemical weapons than by swimming in a pool.
Logical preppers should focus on probabilities and outcomes, and prepare chronologically and financially in that order- not spur of the moment decisions and emotional purchases.  i.e, don't prep on precious metals before you prep on guns and food.  Beans, Bullets and bandaids first, everything else after that.

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